- Study: Metro Surge cost Minnesota hospitality 4,600 jobs, $71M.
- Deportation agenda weakens labor market for all workers.
- Researchers found leisure hospitality jobs fell 1.7 percent below expectations.
U.S. IMMIGRATION AND Customs Enforcement’s “Operation Metro Surge” cost Minnesota’s leisure and hospitality sector an estimated 4,600 jobs and $71 million in wages, according to a new study. The analysis adds to research suggesting the Trump administration’s deportation agenda is weakening the labor market for both immigrant and native-born workers.
The study by Aaron Rosenthal of North Star Policy Action and Aaron Sojourner of the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Policy Research compares federal jobs data from the first three months of 2026 with a “synthetic Minnesota” estimate of how the state’s economy would have performed without Metro Surge, according to Minnesota Reformer.
The researchers found leisure and hospitality employment fell 1.7 percent below expectations based on states with similar economic trends. The gap between federal data and “synthetic Minnesota” appeared only after Metro Surge began, which the researchers say supports the model.
About 3,000 federal agents led many immigrants, including those with work permits, to stay home, the report said. Others were arrested on the way to work, including Roberto Hernandez, father of a Minneapolis police officer, who was arrested in January while driving to his job at an Eagan restaurant despite having no criminal record.
Employment in Minnesota’s leisure and hospitality sector declined several months before Metro Surge, while rising in the U.S. overall, the study found. The researchers estimate the industry would have lost about 1,200 jobs in the first quarter of 2026 without the immigration crackdown. Minnesota instead lost 5,800 leisure and hospitality jobs, while the U.S. gained 38,000.
Researchers also examined effects of Metro Surge on Minnesota’s private sector but found no statistically significant effect. They say this suggests the impact was concentrated in immigrant-dependent industries such as hospitality and construction and in the Twin Cities metro area.
However, the Trump administration argues undocumented immigrants take jobs from native-born workers and credits its deportation campaign for job growth.
“As illegal aliens continue to exit the labor force, more Americans are finding steady and gainful employment,” said former Department of Homeland Security Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin in August 2025, according to Minnesota Reformer. “President Trump and Secretary Noem’s leadership is making America both safe and prosperous again.”
Other research finds the opposite, the report said. A Brookings Institution study found American-born workers were hurt in cities targeted by Trump administration immigration crackdowns, as companies reduced operations due to labor shortages and lower consumer spending.
The study examined the first half of 2025, before Metro Surge and found that a spike in ICE enforcement cost the Twin Cities metro area 14,208 jobs and 668,000 jobs across 86 cities with the largest increases in immigration arrests.
Of those job losses, an estimated 51,000 to 297,000 would have been held by American-born workers. The study found losses were concentrated in immigrant-intensive sectors but also spread to other sectors.
“This finding is not consistent with a simple story of workforce removal. It is consistent with fear-driven demand suppression. When enforcement actions dominate the news, and people stop going out, businesses lose customers and cut staff, regardless of who their workers are,” the report said.
The study’s authors controlled for other economic factors during Trump’s second term, including tariffs, AI, war and inflation, by comparing cities with and without a surge in immigration arrests. Both studies point to ongoing effects from immigration crackdowns as businesses recover.
In January, Hilton Worldwide Holdings said it is removing the Hampton Inn in Lakeville, Minnesota, from its franchise system after it repeatedly denied rooms to Department of Homeland Security staff. ICE agents were conducting an immigration enforcement crackdown targeting undocumented immigrants.
