- USTA: U.S. travel spending is expected to grow through 2028.
- Travel spending is forecast to rise 1 percent to $1.37 trillion this year.
- Inbound visitor spending is projected to rise to $178 billion this year.
U.S. TRAVEL SPENDING is expected to grow in 2026, supported by domestic travel and accelerate in 2027 and 2028, according to the U.S. Travel Association. As domestic leisure and business travel spending rises and international inbound travel recovers, total U.S. travel spending is forecast to increase 1 percent this year to $1.37 trillion.
USTA’s “The Spring 2026 U.S. Travel Update” projects domestic travel will continue to drive the sector despite inflation, consumer uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Total travel spending is expected to reach $1.42 trillion in 2027 and grow further in 2028. Domestic travel accounts for 87 percent of U.S. travel spending and has returned to 2019 levels after adjusting for inflation.
Domestic leisure travel remains the largest market segment. After growing 2.1 percent in 2025, spending is projected to rise 0.9 percent in 2026 to $909 billion. Analysts said Americans continue to prioritize travel despite higher prices, shifting toward shorter trips, regional destinations and drive markets to reduce costs.
Domestic leisure travel is the only major travel segment to exceed 2019 spending levels after adjusting for inflation, the report said. Growth is increasingly driven by higher-income households as consumers remain cautious about discretionary spending despite continued travel demand.
International inbound travel, which declined in 2025, is expected to recover in 2026. Spending from inbound visitors fell 2.4 percent to $175 billion in 2025 but is projected to rise 1.6 percent this year to $178 billion, remaining 18 percent below 2019 levels after adjusting for inflation.
Inbound international visits are projected to rise 3.4 percent in 2026 to 70.6 million travelers after declining 5.5 percent in 2025, driven in part by fewer visitors from Canada. Visits from Canada are expected to recover this year after falling 21 percent in 2025, though total inbound visitation is not expected to return to the 2019 level of 79 million until 2029.
Major international events are expected to support the recovery in coming years. The 2026 FIFA World Cup and 2028 Summer Olympics are projected to boost inbound leisure travel and visitor spending, though analysts said recovery across international markets will remain sensitive to policy decisions, visa delays and global sentiment toward the U.S.
Business travel is expected to grow more slowly than leisure travel. Spending rose 1.1 percent to $317 billion in 2025 and is forecast to increase 0.7 percent in 2026 to $319 billion in inflation-adjusted terms. Growth is expected to improve from 2027 as economic conditions stabilize and corporate travel budgets recover.
Demand for in-person meetings and events continues to support business travel. Domestic group travel is forecast to outpace overall business travel growth, rising 1.4 percent in 2026 to $118 billion, as companies continue to prioritize face-to-face engagement while remaining cautious about travel spending.
The report warned risks to the forecast remain high. Energy prices and conflict in the Middle East could affect travel demand and transportation costs, while international travel recovery remains exposed to higher visa fees, visa delays and negative sentiment toward the U.S. in key markets.
The forecast extends through 2030 and is based on modeling by Tourism Economics. All projections are presented in 2025 inflation-adjusted dollars for comparisons across years and with pre-pandemic travel spending levels.
In January, USTA estimated the federal shutdown cost $6.1 billion, including $2.7 billion tied to 88,000 fewer trips per day. The association recently named Ellen Davis chief operating officer and executive vice president.
