- Hotel rate to grow moderately in ‘27.
- San Francisco leads major U.S. markets.
- AI tools provide revenue management.
U.S. HOTEL RATES are set to rise modestly across most major markets in 2027, according to Amex GBT Consulting's Hotel Monitor 2027. This is expected to give hotels the advantage in next year’s negotiations with buyers.
The forecast shows uneven growth, shaped by industry demand, hotel supply and broader economic conditions in each market. Most North American markets are forecast to see increases below 3 percent. San Francisco is the exception, forecast at 3.6 percent to 5.4 percent, while Seattle sits at flat to 0.8 percent.
New York is forecast at 1.6 percent to 2.5 percent, followed by Los Angeles at 1.3 percent to 2.3 percent, Chicago at 1.5 percent to 2.7 percent, and Dallas at 1.9 percent to 2.9 percent, the report said. Philadelphia is forecast at 1.8 percent to 2.9 percent, Washington at 1.3 percent to 2 percent, and Boston at 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent.
Amex GBT attributes Philadelphia's demand to pharmaceuticals, Chicago and New York's to banking and finance, and Dallas's to energy.
Why San Francisco stands apart
San Francisco's forecast is not a one off. It fits a pattern investors have flagged all year: markets where new hotel construction has slowed enough that existing properties gain pricing power. JLL's 2026 Global Hotel Investment Outlook found that most major U.S. cities now have construction pipelines below 2 percent of existing room supply and named that constraint a direct driver of asset value.
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For owners and developers, that reframes San Francisco's higher forecast as a signal rather than an outlier, according to JLL.
A market with constrained supply and steady demand from tourism, conventions and corporate travel is exactly the profile investors have been targeting. The same logic applies wherever a market shows a wide gap between demand growth and new room supply.
AI gives hotels a pricing edge
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The JLL report also flags agentic artificial intelligence as a factor in hotel rate setting, without saying what that shift is worth. Hotels using AI-driven revenue management have reported gains of up to 17 percent in revenue and 10 percent in occupancy compared with hotels without it, according to HospitalityOS, which cites McKinsey among its sources.
That gain matters beyond the property level. It means hotels enter 2027 rate negotiations with sharper, faster pricing models than the corporate buyers across the table, unless those buyers adopt matching tools.
A 2025 GBTA survey found 44 percent of travel managers already expect AI driven dynamic rate optimization to be standard by 2027.
Global rates face different pressures
The U.S. outlook is part of a broader global picture, Amex GBT said. The firm expects rates to increase globally, supported by corporate travel and meetings demand in the Americas and Europe and persistent inflation. However, it expects more moderate increases in some Asia-Pacific markets, while the Middle East remains affected by weaker demand linked to the conflict.
For the first time, Amex GBT is presenting its 2027 forecasts as ranges rather than single figures. The company cites geopolitical uncertainty and commodity-price volatility, with the lower or upper end of the ranges depending in part on the direction of global inflation.
What happens next for buyers
The practical takeaway for travel managers heading into the 2027 request for proposal cycle: pricing power is moving toward the hotel side of the table in supply constrained markets and AI is accelerating that shift. Buyers without comparable rate benchmarking tools risk negotiating against a system, not a person.
Amex GBT's own framing supports this.
“Price is a key indicator, but it doesn’t always tell the full story,” said Sara Andell, Amex GBT consulting director of consulting strategy. “We’re encouraging companies to consider what value means to them, and what they are getting from their hotel spend, not just the headline rate.”
That advice reads differently once AI is setting the headline rate on the other side of the negotiation. The value add for corporate buyers in 2027 will not just be a lower number. It will be proof that the negotiated package, once signed, is honored at the front desk.
A new study by market analytics firm Mower found AI is nearly as likely as Google to be the first tool U.S. leisure travelers use to plan a trip. Yet travelers still check AI recommendations before booking.
