Ed Brock is an award-winning journalist who has worked for various U.S. newspapers and magazines, including with American City & County magazine, a national publication based in Atlanta focused on city and county government issues. He is currently assistant editor at Asian Hospitality magazine, the top U.S. publication for Asian American hoteliers. Originally from Mobile, Alabama, Ed began his career in journalism in the early 1990s as a reporter for a chain of weekly newspapers in Baldwin County, Alabama. After a stint teaching English in Japan, Ed returned to the U.S. and moved to the Atlanta area where he returned to journalism, coming to work at Asian Hospitality in 2016.
THE HOTEL INDUSTRY is poised for a fairly strong year in 2023 despite remaining concerns about a downturn, according to a pair of reports. Continuing demand is expected to overcome extra labor costs and economic vagaries to propel performance above pre-pandemic levels, according to the reports from the American Hotel & Lodging Association and STR.
The state of the industry
AHLA’s 2023 State of the Hotel Industry Report projects that demand, nominal room revenue and state and local tax revenue all are well on the way to recovery. Operational challenges, such as staffing shortages and economic factors will replace COVID as hoteliers’ top concerns, the report predicts.
The U.S. hotel industry is projected to achieve 1.3 billion occupied room nights in 2023, according to the American Hotel & Lodging Association’s 2023 State of the Hotel Industry Report, slightly exceeding 2019’s total.
“Three years after the unprecedented hardships our industry faced due to the pandemic, hotels continue to make significant strides toward recovery,” said Chip Rogers, AHLA president and CEO. “2022 saw one of the strongest summer travel seasons ever, and this year we expect hotels to reach new heights in terms of room revenue, room-night demand and state and local tax revenue. But when inflation is taken into account, our industry likely won’t see full recovery for several more years. Nevertheless, hotel performance is trending in the right direction – great news for our industry and our employees, who are enjoying better pay, more career opportunities, upward mobility and flexibility than ever before.”
Other results of the report, which is based on data and analysis from Oxford Economics in collaboration with STR, Avendra, Ecolab, Encore and Oracle, include:
2023 nominal room revenue is projected to reach new heights ($197.48 billion vs. $170.35 billion in 2019). While these numbers are not adjusted for inflation, and real revenue recovery will likely take several more years, the trendlines are positive.
2023 room-night demand is projected to surpass pre-pandemic levels (1.3 billion occupied room nights vs. 1.29 billion in 2019).
Hotels are expected to generate $46.71 billion in state and local tax revenue in 2023, up from $41.11 billion in 2019.
Average hotel occupancy is expected to reach 63.8 percent in 2023 – just shy of 2019’s 65.9 percent.
Staffing is expected to remain a significant challenge for U.S. hotels in 2023, with hotels projected to employ 2.09 million people in 2023, down from 2.35 million in 2019.
Inflation for a number of hospitality-related products will continue to run 5 percent to upwards of 10 percent for the next few quarters, according to AHLA Platinum Partner Avendra.
The report also forecasts that operational challenges such as staffing shortages and economic factors will replace COVID as hoteliers’ top concerns. Also, 70 percent of planners surveyed for Encore’s Fall 2022 Planner Pulse Report were either booking or actively sourcing new events, and 61 percent expected to have larger budgets in 2023.
STR forecasts modest gains
In their latest forecast for 2023, issued at the Americas Lodging Investment Summit on Jan. 23, STR and Tourism Economics upgraded their projections slightly from its previous forecast and lowered expectations for 2024. Occupancy for the year is now expected to reach 63.6 percent, 0.1 percent less than the previous forecast but still up from 2022’s 62.7 percent. ADR is now expected to rise 2.1 percent, 0.5 percent more than the original projection, while RevPAR is set to rise 3.7 percent, 0.3 percent more than originally expected.
Occupancy for 2023 is now expected to reach 63.6 percent, 0.1 percent less than the previous forecast but still up from 2022’s 62.7 percent, according to STR. ADR is now expected to rise 2.1 percent, 0.5 percent more than the original projection, while RevPAR is set to rise 3.7 percent, 0.3 percent more than originally expected.
For 2024, a 0.3 percent downgrade in occupancy coupled with a 0.1 percent lift in ADR meant a RevPAR downgrade of 0.4 percent. RevPAR, recovered fully in 2022 on a nominal basis but will not achieve that status when adjusted for real inflation until 2025.
“Even if the anticipated recession is more on the shallow side, performance growth in 2023 will be pretty remarkable,” said Amanda Hite, STR president. “Gains are slowing, however, with inflation rising at a faster rate than ADR. Demand continues to trend at record levels with continued strength in the leisure segment as well as a substantial return in group business. While improving, a deficit persists in business travel – a segment that is especially important for the upper-tier classes. Overall, much of the industry is in a solid position to navigate choppy waters ahead, and we will even see a return to the year-over-year benchmark as the pandemic calendar comparables are behind us.”
TE’s Aran Ryan, director of industry studies, was also cautiously optimistic.
“Oxford Economics’ baseline outlook anticipates the economy will experience a mild recession this year, characterized by a peak-to-trough decline in GDP of around 1 percent, and a roughly one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate,” Ryan said. “In this context, we expect lodging demand growth will slow but remain positive on a year-over-year basis as group events and international travelers return, and households continue to prioritize leisure travel.”
Stonebridge Cos. added the Statler Dallas, Curio Collection by Hilton, to its managed portfolio.
The hotel, opened in 1956 and relaunched in 2017, is owned by Centurion American Development Group.
The property is near Main Street Garden Park, the Arts District and the Dallas World Aquarium.
STONEBRIDGE COS. HAS contracted to manage the Statler Dallas, Curio Collection by Hilton in Dallas to its managed portfolio. The hotel, opened in 1956 and relaunched in 2017, is owned by Centurion American Development Group, led by Mehrdad Moayedi.
It has an outdoor pool and more than 26,000 square feet of meeting space, Stonebridge said in a statement. The downtown Dallas property is near Main Street Garden Park, the Arts District, the Kay Bailey Hutchison Convention Center, Deep Ellum, Klyde Warren Park, and the Dallas World Aquarium.
“The Statler is an extraordinary asset with a storied history in Dallas, and we are thrilled to welcome it to our managed portfolio,” said Rob Smith, Stonebridge’s president and CEO. “Its blend of modern hospitality with timeless character makes it a natural fit within our lifestyle collection. We look forward to honoring the property’s legacy while enhancing performance and delivering an elevated guest experience.”
Stonebridge, based in Denver, is a privately held hotel management company founded by Chairman Navin Dimond and led by Smith. The company recently added the 244-room Marriott Saddle Brook in Saddle Brook, New Jersey, to its full-service portfolio.
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GSA will keep federal per diem rates the same for FY 2026.
The lodging rate stays $110 and meals allowance $68.
AHLA raised concerns over the impact on government travel.
THE U.S. GENERAL Services Administration will keep standard per diem rates for federal travelers at 2025 levels for fiscal year 2026. The American Hotel and Lodging Association raised concerns that the decision affects government travel, a key economic driver for the hotel industry.
The standard lodging rate remains $110 and the meals and incidental allowance is $68 for fiscal year 2026, unchanged from 2025, GSA said in a statement.
“Government travel is a vital economic driver for the hotel industry and the broader travel economy,” said Rosanna Maietta, AHLA’s president and CEO. “That’s why it’s so important for government per diem rates to keep pace with rising costs across the economy. The GSA’s decision to keep per diem rates flat will place a strain on the hospitality industry as well as government travelers seeking lodging. A strong economy requires a thriving hospitality sector. We will continue to advocate with the GSA and members of Congress for per diem rates that reflect hotels’ rising costs of doing business.”
GSA sets per diem rates to reimburse federal employees’ lodging and meal expenses for official travel within the continental U.S., based on the trailing 12-month ADR for lodging and meals minus 5 percent. This is the first year in five that GSA has not raised the rates.
The federal administration said the decision reflects the federal government’s commitment to using taxpayer funds appropriately and for core mission activities. The steady per diem rates are enabled by the reduction in inflationary pressures from the previous administration.
“GSA's decision ensures cost-effective travel reimbursement while supporting the mission-critical mobility of the federal workforce,” said Larry Allen, associate administrator, GSA Office of Government-wide Policy.
The rate applies to federal travelers and those on government-contracted business for all U.S. locations not designated as “non-standard areas,” which have higher per diems. For fiscal year 2026, GSA will keep the number of non-standard areas at 296, unchanged from 2025.
North America recorded a 10 percent decline while Central America dropped 12 percent.
THE GLOBAL TRAVEL and tourism sector recorded an 8 percent year-on-year decline in total deal activity during the first half of 2025, according to market data firm GlobalData. Reduced investor appetite was seen across major deal types: mergers and acquisitions, private equity and venture financing.
GlobalData’s analysis shows venture financing deals fell by about 25 percent and private equity deals dropped by around 20 percent compared to the same period last year. M&A activity proved more resilient with a smaller 3.5 percent decline in volume. North America saw a 10 percent decline while Central America saw a 12 percent decline.
“The overall decline underscores a broader trend where macroeconomic factors and investor sentiments are reshaping deal-making strategies within the industry. The subdued activity suggests that dealmakers are becoming increasingly cautious, likely due to macroeconomic challenges and volatile market conditions,” said Aurojyoti Bose, lead analyst at GlobalData. “The decline in venture financing and private equity deals, suggests a dent in investor sentiment, emphasizing a trend of reduced risk appetite.”
The Asia-Pacific region posted growth, with deal volume rising 11 percent in H1 2025, driven by increased activity in Japan and India. In contrast, Europe saw a 19 percent drop, the Middle East and Africa fell 39 percent and South and Central America declined 12 percent.
Among major markets, the US, China and Germany all recorded declines in deal announcements while the UK maintained deal volumes at similar levels to last year.
GlobalData notes that historical figures may change if additional deals from earlier months are disclosed later.
Last year saw a 12.6 percent decline, with a total of 347 mergers and acquisitions, private equity and venture financing deals reported in the global travel and tourism sector during the first half of 2024.
Vision held its Red Sand Project to combat human trafficking in Chattanooga, Tennessee.
It fights trafficking through partnerships, staff training and philanthropic support.
Tennessee reported 213 human trafficking cases in 2024, involving 446 victims.
VISION HOSPITALITY GROUP held its fourth annual Red Sand Project with WillowBend Farms to combat human trafficking in Chattanooga, Tennessee. The event brought together organizations working to combat human trafficking, including the Family Justice Center for Hamilton County and the Hamilton County Health Department.
“We were honored to stand with our partners and our community to bring attention to this issue,” Patel said. “Together, through awareness and action, we are working toward a future where every individual is safe, seen and supported.”
The Red Sand Project is a symbolic initiative to raise awareness and promote action on human trafficking, the statement said. Participants poured red sand into sidewalk cracks to represent victims who have fallen through the cracks of society. This year’s event came as the Chattanooga community reported progress in prevention and survivor restoration over the past year.
“The Red Sand Project reminds us that human trafficking continues to be a pressing public health issue and a devastating reality in every state,” said Jenelle Hawkins, Vision's director of operation excellence. “As members of the hotel industry, we understand our unique position to help identify and prevent trafficking. We are proud to be part of a community that is not only raising awareness but also driving real solutions. As we mark our fourth year, our commitment is stronger than ever.”
According to the Tennessee Bureau of Investigation, there were 213 reported human trafficking cases in Tennessee in 2024, involving 446 victims. Events like the Red Sand Project raise awareness, promote education and encourage community action.
Vision Hospitality Group combats trafficking through community partnerships, staff training and philanthropic support. In 2024, it donated $100,000 to the AHLA Foundation’s No Room for Trafficking Survivor Fund, which provides housing and job placement services to survivors nationwide.
If you know someone who needs help escaping trafficking, call the Tennessee Human Trafficking Hotline at 1-855-558-6484. To report a suspected victim, call the National Human Trafficking Hotline at 1-888-373-7888 or text 233722.
In June, Vision broke ground on a 150-key Hilton dual-brand in Lookout Valley, Chattanooga, Tennessee.
Choice Hotels International reported Q2 net income of $81.7 million.
Domestic RevPAR fell 2.9 percent due to macroeconomic conditions.
Extended-stay portfolio rose 10.5 percent YoY, with a domestic pipeline of 43,000 rooms.
CHOICE HOTELS INTERNATIONAL reported second-quarter net income of $81.7 million, down from $87.1 million a year earlier. Its forecast for the year remained positive, but was downgraded some to account for changes in macroeconomic conditions.
The company’s global pipeline exceeded 93,000 rooms, including nearly 77,000 in the U.S. Its global system size grew 2.1 percent, including 3 percent growth in the upscale, extended-stay and midscale segments, Choice said in a statement.
“Choice Hotels delivered another quarter of record financial performance despite a softer domestic RevPAR environment, underscoring the successful execution and diversification of our growth strategy,” said Patrick Pacious, president and CEO. “We are especially pleased with our strong international performance, where we have achieved significant growth and accelerated global expansion through a recent strategic acquisition, the signing of key partnerships, and entry into new markets. With more diversified growth avenues, enhanced product quality and value proposition driving stronger customer engagement and a leading position in the cycle-resilient extended-stay segment, we remain well-positioned to deliver long-term returns for all our stakeholders.”
Domestic RevPAR declined 2.9 percent, reflecting macroeconomic conditions and a difficult comparison with 2024 due to the timing of Easter and eclipse-related travel, the statement said. Excluding those effects, RevPAR fell approximately 1.6 percent. Meanwhile, the domestic extended-stay portfolio outperformed the broader lodging industry by 40 basis points in RevPAR, while the economy transient portfolio exceeded its chain scale by 320 basis points.
Adjusted EBITDA rose 2 percent to $165 million, or $167 million excluding a $2 million operating guarantee related to the Radisson Hotels Americas acquisition. Adjusted diluted EPS increased 4 percent to $1.92, the statement said.
Expansion and development
The domestic extended-stay portfolio grew 10.5 percent year over year, with a pipeline of nearly 43,000 rooms as of June 30, Choice said. The combined domestic upscale, extended-stay and midscale portfolio grew 2.3 percent. WoodSpring Suites expanded 9.7 percent to nearly 33,000 rooms and ranked first in guest satisfaction among economy extended-stay brands in the J.D. Power 2025 study. The domestic economy transient pipeline increased 8 percent to more than 1,700 rooms.
Choice acquired the remaining 50 percent interest in Choice Hotels Canada for approximately $112 million in July, funded through cash and credit. The deal expanded its Canadian brand portfolio from eight to 22 and added 327 properties and more than 26,000 rooms. The business is expected to contribute approximately $18 million in EBITDA in 2025.
International activity included a renewed master franchise agreement with Atlantica Hospitality International in Brazil for more than 10,000 rooms; a direct franchise deal with Zenitude Hotel-Residences in France, which nearly tripled room count and two agreements with SSAW Hotels & Resorts in China. These include a 9,500-room distribution deal for 2025 and a master franchise agreement projected to add 10,000 rooms over five years.
Global net rooms for upscale brands increased 14.7 percent year over year, the statement said. The pipeline for these brands rose 7 percent since March 31 to nearly 29,000 rooms.
2025 outlook
Choice revised its RevPAR outlook to reflect more moderate domestic expectations due to macroeconomic conditions, the statement said. The adjusted EBITDA forecast includes a $6 million contribution from the Choice Hotels Canada acquisition for the remainder of 2025. It also reflects the $2 million Radisson-related operating guarantee payment incurred in the second quarter.
Net income guidance was lowered to a range of $261 million to $276 million, down from $275 million to $290 million. Adjusted net income remains at $324 million to $339 million.
Domestic RevPAR growth was revised to between negative 3 percent and flat, compared to the earlier range of negative 1 percent to positive 1 percent. The global net system rooms growth projection remains at approximately 1 percent.
In May, Choice reported 2.3 percent year-over-year growth in domestic RevPAR for the first quarter.