- CoStar, TE raise 2026 forecast.
- Industry posts record H1 room nights.
- Stronger 2027 forecast despite mid-year weakness.
COSTAR AND TOURISM Economics raised their 2026 ADR and RevPAR forecast by 1.1 and 1.6 percentage points, respectively. The hotel industry sold a record number of room nights in the first half, up 11.4 million from 2025.
The firms also raised their 2026 U.S. hotel occupancy forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 63.1 percent at the 18th Annual Hotel Data Conference.
“The hotel industry sold a record number of room nights in the first half of the year, an increase of 11.4 million compared with 2025, while room revenue climbed by more than $5.4 billion,” said Amanda Hite, STR president. “The industry outperformed our expectations on stronger leisure and business travel, fuelled in part by the World Cup and America 250 celebrations. In the next six months, we expect slightly lower gains than in the first half of the year, but top-line growth will still be driven by ADR.”
Hite said they expect 2027 to be stronger than previously forecast, despite mid-year weakness from difficult year-over-year comparisons.
“We expect travel activity to continue to grow as we move into next year,” she said. “Stable labour markets, recent wealth gains and easing inflation should keep consumer spending resilient, while business investment is broadening beyond AI-related projects and group travel continues to recover. International visitation should see modest improvement, though prolonged U.S.-Canada trade tensions remain a headwind.”
GOPPAR is expected to rise 4 percent this year and another 1 percent next year on stronger rooms revenue.
“Rising expenses continue to be worrisome, increasing by more than the rate of inflation in both 2026 and 2027,” she said.
In June, CoStar and Tourism Economics raised their 2026 ADR and RevPAR forecast by 1 and 2.2 percentage points, respectively. They also forecast occupancy to grow year over year after previously expecting a decline.
