U.S. hotel EBITDA is expected to rise 1.8 percent this year as well
Lodging Analytics Research & Consulting projects U.S. RevPAR to rise 3.1 percent to $103.02 in 2025, driven by a 3.7 percent ADR increase to $164.54 and a 0.6 percent occupancy decline to 62.6 percent.
Vishnu Rageev R is a journalist with more than 15 years of experience in business journalism. Before joining Asian Media Group in 2022, he worked with BW Businessworld, IMAGES Group, exchange4media Group, DC Books, and Dhanam Publications in India. His coverage includes industry analysis, market trends and corporate developments, focusing on retail, real estate and hospitality. As a senior journalist with Asian Hospitality, he covers the U.S. hospitality industry. He is from Kerala, a state in South India.
U.S. REVPAR IS projected to rise 3.1 percent to $103.02 in 2025, driven by a 3.7 percent ADR increase to $164.54 and a 0.6 percent occupancy decline to 62.6 percent, according to Lodging Analytics Research & Consulting. U.S. hotel EBITDA is expected to grow 1.8 percent with slight margin erosion, while hotel values rise 3 percent.
LARC attributes 2024 RevPAR growth acceleration to election tailwinds, improving group trends, and easing domestic leisure headwinds, while projecting an 8 percent increase in hotel values over five years.
“Our 2025 operating outlook has slightly improved from a quarter ago,” said Ryan Meliker, LARC’s president. “The most significant change is growing confidence that leisure demand has bottomed out, with growth set to resume in 2025, along with continued modest growth in the corporate transient segment. This translates to higher ADR growth, but occupancy will be lower, primarily due to difficult comparisons from disaster relief efforts in the fourth quarter. Our value appreciation forecast also improves, tied to an improving long-term cash flow outlook.”
The first and third quarters will see the strongest growth, while the fourth quarter will be softer due to tough disaster relief comparisons in the Southeast and Texas.
Market forecasts
Photo credit: iStock
Top markets for 2025 RevPAR growth are Maui, Hawaii; San Francisco; Palm Beach, California; San Jose, California; and Savannah, Georgia.
Bottom markets for 2025 RevPAR growth are Houston, Cleveland, Chicago, Las Vegas, Milwaukee
Five-year outlook: 2024-2029
Top markets for RevPAR growth are Raleigh, North Carolina; Orlando, Florida; Maui; Palm Beach; and Washington, D.C., with projected 2029 inauguration impact.
Bottom markets for RevPAR growth are Cincinnati; Kansas City, Kansas/Missouri; Indianapolis; Houston; and Louisville, Kentucky.
Top markets for value change are Puerto Rico; Charlotte; North Carolina; New Orleans; Salt Lake City; and Orlando.
Bottom markets for value change are Austin, Texas; Boston, Chicago, St. Louis and Portland, Oregon.
Sluggish growth
U.S. economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2024, with real GDP rising 2.3 percent, down from 3.1 percent in the third quarter. Despite this, U.S. RevPAR growth accelerated 3.6 percent year over year, driven by increased demand from natural disaster relief and pent-up demand following the swift resolution of the U.S. general election.
“Corporate transient demand is expected to remain solid in the near term as pent-up demand from the election cycle is unlocked in the first half of the year,” Meliker said. “However, our positive short-term outlook for corporate transient demand growth moderates as the year progresses, limited by sluggish job growth and declining corporate profits. Group trends remain strong, contributing to a base level of demand that will further support pricing power. Nationally, we estimate the convention center booking pace will be up 4 percent year over year in 2025, following a 3 percent increase in 2024.”
In 2024, outbound international travel was 21 percent above 2019 levels and up 9 percent year over year, with 13 million more U.S. travelers than in 2019. Meanwhile, inbound travel remained 8 percent below 2019 levels but rose 9 percent year over year, with 5 million fewer foreign visitors than in 2019.
The U.S. shifted from a net importer of 5 million travelers in 2019 to a net exporter of 14 million in 2024—an 18 million traveler swing that is weighing on hotel performance, especially in gateway markets, LARC said.
Rising expense pressures
Meliker said expense pressures will be a substantial factor in identifying market winners and losers, especially in major cities with recent or upcoming collective bargaining negotiations.
“In recent agreements nationwide, the hotel union and hotel owners/operators agreed to roughly a 10 percent annual wage increase over the next five years and a reset to pre-pandemic staffing levels,” he said. “We expect non-union hotels to keep pace with wage growth at union properties in these markets, though many already pay above union-mandated levels.”
With added political risks like New York City's Safe Hotels Act potentially expanding to other markets, wage and expense growth will likely impact value more than top-line performance, LARC said. Their strain on margins heavily influences the investment outlook on the best and worst markets.
U.S.-Canada trade tensions are impacting tourism, with Canadian drive-in visits to the U.S. down 23 percent year over year in February, the second consecutive monthly decline and only the second since March 2021.
Marriott launches Outdoor Collection and Bonvoy Outdoors platform.
First two brands are Postcard Cabins and Trailborn Hotels.
Platform features 450+ hotels, 50,000 homes and activities.
MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL RECENTLY launched the brand “Outdoor Collection by Marriott Bonvoy” and introduced “Marriott Bonvoy Outdoors,” a digital platform that lets travelers plan trips by destination or activity. The first two brands in the Outdoor Collection are Postcard Cabins and Trailborn Hotels.
Outdoor Collection offers stays such as cabins near national parks and hotels on cliffs, providing access to nature along with basic guest needs, including beds, running water and restrooms, Marriott said in a statement.
The Marriott Bonvoy Outdoors platform includes 450 hotels, 50,000 homes and villas, and tours and activities, the statement said. Postcard Cabins has 1,200 cabins across 29 U.S. locations within two hours of major cities and Trailborn Hotels offers properties in the Blue Ridge Mountains, the Grand Canyon, and Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina.
“We built Marriott Bonvoy Outdoors to help people, whether that’s cresting a mountain trail, catching the perfect wave, or simply finding quiet under the stars,” said Peggy Roe, Marriott's executive vice president and chief customer officer. “Travel is at its best when it speaks to who we are and what we love. It’s about reconnecting with yourself and the people you love in the places that inspire you most. With the new Outdoor Collection by Marriott Bonvoy, our curated Marriott Bonvoy Moments and activations like the Drop Pin Challenge with Dylan Efron, we’re not just offering places to stay, we’re opening doors to experiences that inspire, connect and stay with you forever.”
Marriott Bonvoy partnered with Dylan Efron on the Drop Pin Challenge, a treasure hunt across 20 U.S. and Canadian locations with 10 million points at stake. Travelers can visit marriottbonvoyoutdoors.com for rules and locations and the first 50 eligible participants to scan each pin earn 10,000 points. The platform is also partnering with Outside Interactive to offer Marriott Bonvoy Moments that connect guests with nature and activities.
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Peachtree adds six hotels to third-party platform.
Five are owned by La Posada Group, one by Decatur Properties.
Third-party portfolio totals 42 hotels.
PEACHTREE GROUP’S HOSPITALITY management division added six hotels to its third-party management platform. Five are owned by La Posada Group LLC and one by Decatur Properties Holdings.
La Posada’s hotels include Fairfield Inn Evansville East in Evansville, Indiana; Fairfield Inn Las Cruces and TownePlace Suites Las Cruces in Las Cruces, New Mexico; and SpringHill Suites Lawrence Downtown and TownePlace Suites Kansas City Overland Park in Kansas, Peachtree said in a statement.
It also assumed management of Decatur Properties’ Hampton Inn in Monahans, Texas.
“Our third-party management business is experiencing growth and these six hotels demonstrate the trust owners are placing in our team,” said Vickie Callahan, president of Peachtree’s hospitality management division. “We have experience managing hotels and managing operations for partners who have entrusted us with their assets. We are committed to protecting asset value, driving results for partners and delivering a strong guest experience.”
The division manages hotels across brands and markets nationwide, the statement said. It operates 115 hotels across 29 brands with 14,212 rooms in 27 states and Washington, D.C. The additions bring its total third-party operations to 42 hotels.
Callahan said the team uses scale, operating systems and brand relationships to optimize revenue, control costs and improve guest satisfaction.
Atlanta-based Peachtree is led by Greg Friedman, managing principal and CEO; Jatin Desai, managing principal and CFO and Mitul Patel, principal.
AHLA Foundation distributed $710,000 in scholarships to 246 students.
Nearly 90 percent of recipients come from underrepresented communities.
The foundation funds students pursuing education and careers in the lodging sector.
AHLA FOUNDATION DISTRIBUTED $710,000 in academic scholarships to 246 students at 64 schools nationwide for the 2025–2026 academic year. Nearly 90 percent of recipients are from underrepresented communities, reflecting the foundation’s focus on expanding access to hospitality careers.
The foundation awards academic scholarships annually to students in hospitality management and related programs, it said in a statement.
“Our scholarship program is helping ensure the next generation of talent has the resources to pursue careers in the hospitality industry,” said Kevin Carey, AHLA Foundation's president and CEO. “We’ve invested millions of dollars over the last several decades to recruit and support future leaders who will strengthen our industry.”
It provides funding to help students pursue education and careers in the lodging sector, the statement said. Award decisions are based on applicants’ academic performance, extracurricular involvement, recommendations and financial need.
In September, AHLA Foundation, the International Council on Hotel, Restaurant and Institutional Education and the Accreditation Commission for Programs in Hospitality Administration announced plans to expand education opportunities for hospitality students. The alliance aim to provide data, faculty development and student engagement opportunities.
The U.S. government shut down at midnight after Congress failed to agree on funding.
About 750,000 federal employees will be furloughed daily, costing $400 million.
Key immigration and labor programs are halted.
THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT shut down at midnight after Republicans and Democrats failed to agree on funding. Disputes over healthcare subsidies and spending priorities left both sides unwilling to accept responsibility.
“A shutdown is a wholly preventable blow to America’s travel economy—costing $1 billion each week—and affecting millions of travelers and businesses while straining an already overextended federal travel workforce,” Freeman said. “While Congress recently provided a $12.5 billion down payment to modernize our nation’s air travel system and improve safety and efficiency, this modernization will stop in the event of a shutdown.”
USTA said that halting air traffic controller hiring and training would worsen a nationwide shortage of more than 2,800 controllers and further strain the air travel system.
About 750,000 federal workers are expected to be furloughed each day at a cost of about $400 million, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Essential services to protect life and property remain operational, CNN reported. The Department of Education said most of its staff will be furloughed, while the Department of Homeland Security will continue much of its work. Agencies released contingency plans before the deadline.
Immigration services are directly affected. Most U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services operations continue because they are fee funded, but programs relying on appropriations—such as E-Verify, the Conrad 30 J-1 physician program and the special immigrant religious worker program—are suspended. Houston law firm Reddy Neumann Brown said employers must manually verify I-9 documents if E-Verify goes offline, though USCIS has historically extended compliance deadlines.
The Department of Labor will halt its Office of Foreign Labor Certification, freezing labor condition applications for H-1B visas, PERM applications and prevailing wage determinations, India’s Business Standard reported. Its FLAG system and related websites will also go offline. Immigration lawyers warn of ripple effects, since USCIS depends on DOL data. The Board of Alien Labor Certification Appeals and administrative law dockets will also pause.
Visa and passport services at U.S. consulates generally continue because they are fee funded. If revenue falls short at a post, services may be limited to emergencies and diplomatic needs.
Reuters reported that the disruption could delay the September jobs report, slow air travel, suspend scientific research, withhold pay from active-duty U.S. troops and disrupt other government operations. The funding standoff involves $1.7 trillion in discretionary agency spending—about one-quarter of the $7 trillion federal budget, according to Reuters. Most of the rest goes to health programs, retirement benefits and interest on the $37.5 trillion national debt.
According to The New York Times, unlike previous shutdowns, Trump is threatening long-term changes to the government if Democrats do not concede to demands, including firing workers and permanently cutting programs they support.
The U.S. led global travel and tourism in 2024 with $2.6 trillion in GDP, WTTC reported.
India retained ninth place with $249.3 billion in GDP.
The sector supported 357 million jobs in 2024, rising to 371 million in 2025.
THE U.S. LED global travel and tourism in 2024, contributing $2.6 trillion to GDP, mainly from domestic demand, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council. Europe accounted for five of the top 10 destinations, while India ranked 9th.
WTTC opened its 25th Global Summit in Rome with research showing investment reached $1 trillion in 2024, led by the U.S., China, Saudi Arabia and France.
“These results tell a story of strength and opportunity,” said Gloria Guevara, WTTC interim CEO. “The U.S. remains the world’s largest travel and tourism market, China is surging back, Europe is powering ahead, and destinations across the Middle East, Asia and Africa are delivering record growth. This year, we are forecasting that our sector will contribute a historic $2.1 trillion in 2025, surpassing the previous high of $1.9 trillion in 2019. As Italy hosts this year’s Global Summit, its role as a G7 leader showcases the importance of tourism in driving economies, creating jobs and shaping our shared future.”
The U.S. kept its top position, but international visitor spending is expected to fall by $12.5 billion in 2025, limiting growth to 0.7 percent. China, the second-largest market, contributed $1.64 trillion in 2024 and is forecast to grow 22.7 percent this year. Japan, the fifth-largest market, is expected to rise from $310.5 billion to nearly $325 billion.
Italy, which hosted the summit and is a G7 member, contributed $248.3 billion in 2024, driven by international visitors and the meetings and events sector. Germany, the third-largest market, contributed $525 billion. The UK generated $367 billion despite a fall in international visitor spending, while France and Spain added $289 billion and $270 billion. Europe’s growth was supported by both cultural and modern sectors.
India contributed $249.3 billion in 2024. In June, WTTC reported international visitors spent $36.09 billion in India in last year, up 9 percent from 2019.
Jobs on the rise
Travel and tourism supported 357 million jobs in 2024 and is expected to reach 371 million in 2025, increasing its share of global employment, the WTTC report found. By 2035, the sector is projected to support one in eight jobs worldwide, adding 91 million positions—most in Asia-Pacific—and accounting for one in three new jobs globally.
Uncertainties over trade tariffs and geopolitical tensions could limit sector growth in 2025, the report said. Travel and tourism’s GDP contribution is forecast to rise 6.7 percent, returning toward pre-pandemic averages but still outpacing the 2.5 percent growth projected for the global economy.
The sector is expected to contribute $11.7 trillion, or 10.3 percent of global GDP and add 14.4 million jobs, bringing total employment to 371 million, or 10.9 percent of global jobs. International visitor spending is projected to fully recover, rising 8.6 percent above 2019 levels to nearly $2.1 trillion, while domestic visitor spending is expected to rise 13.6 percent to $5.6 trillion. Annual growth for 2025 is forecast at 10 percent for international and 5.1 percent for domestic spending.
In May, WTTC projected the U.S. stood to lose $12.5 billion in international travel spending this year, falling to under $169 billion from $181 billion in 2024. The council said U.S. needs to do more to welcome international visitors rather than “putting up the ‘closed’ sign.”