Report: Global tourism on track for full year-end recovery
The agency forecast a ‘full recovery’ by year-end despite economic, geopolitical and climate challenges
By Vishnu Rageev RDec 06, 2024
INTERNATIONAL TOURISM REACHED 98 percent of pre-pandemic levels in 2019, with approximately 1.1 billion tourists traveling internationally in the first nine months of 2024, according to the United Nations tourism agency. The Americas recovered 97 percent of pre-pandemic arrivals, down 3 percent from 2019.
In its “World Tourism Barometer” report, the Madrid-based UN Tourism forecast a "full recovery" by year-end despite economic, geopolitical and climate challenges.
International tourist arrivals grew due to strong post-pandemic demand in Europe, solid performance from major source markets and the ongoing recovery of destinations in Asia Pacific, the agency said. Tourist arrivals in the Middle East, Europe and Africa exceeded 2019 levels, with increases of 29 percent, 1 percent and 6 percent, respectively.
By September, international tourist arrivals in the Americas reached 97 percent of 2019 levels, the agency found. The Asia-Pacific region reached 85 percent of 2019 levels, an increase from 66 percent in 2023.
Growth in international arrivals has been accompanied by a rise in tourism revenue in the first three quarters of 2024. In the first eight to nine months of 2024, 35 of 43 countries with available data on receipts surpassed pre-pandemic levels, many reporting double-digit growth compared to 2019.
The U.S., the world’s top tourism earner, reported 7 percent growth through September, UN Tourism said.
Spain, the world’s second-largest tourist destination, saw a 36 percent rise. Other strong performers in Europe include the UK, with a 43 percent growth in earnings, France with 27 percent, and Italy with 26 percent.
“The strong growth seen in tourism receipts is excellent news for economies around the world,” said Zurab Pololikashvili, UN Tourism secretary-general. “The fact that visitor spending is growing even more strongly than arrivals has a direct impact on millions of jobs and small businesses and contributes decisively to the balance of payments and tax revenues of many economies.”
International tourist arrivals are expected to reach 2019 levels in 2024, while international tourism receipts nearly reached pre-pandemic levels in 2023, the report said. While many destinations exceeded pre-pandemic arrival numbers in 2023 or have done so in 2024, there is still room for recovery in several subregions and destinations.
A slower rebound in parts of North-East Asia and Central Eastern Europe contrasts with strong results across other European subregions, the Middle East, Central America and the Caribbean, where arrivals have surpassed pre-pandemic levels, the UN Tourism found.
Despite strong overall results, the tourism sector faces ongoing economic, geopolitical and climate challenges, the agency said. Inflation in travel, including high transport and accommodation prices, as well as volatile oil prices, remain key issues. Ongoing conflicts and global tensions continue to affect consumer confidence, while extreme weather events and staff shortages also pose significant challenges to tourism performance.
In June, the World Travel & Tourism Council and the UN World Tourism Organization signed an MoU at the G20 Ministerial meeting in Goa to promote global collaboration for job creation, talent development, and business opportunities in the travel and tourism industry.
The G20 New Delhi Leaders' Declaration highlights tourism’s role in promoting sustainable social and economic development. The G20 meeting on Sept. 9 to 10 acknowledged the potential for building a future through development models that ensure sustainable, inclusive and equitable transitions globally, leaving no one behind.
More than 70 percent expect a RevPAR increase in Q4, according to HAMA survey.
Demand is the top concern, cited by 77.8 percent, up from 65 percent in spring.
Only 37 percent expect a U.S. recession in 2025, down from 49 percent earlier in the year.
MORE THAN 70 PERCENT of respondents to a Hospitality Asset Managers Association survey expect a 1 to 3 percent RevPAR increase in the fourth quarter. Demand is the top concern, cited by 77.8 percent of respondents, up from 65 percent in the spring survey.
HAMA’s “Fall 2025 Industry Outlook Survey” found that two-thirds of respondents are pursuing acquisitions, 80 percent plan renovations in the coming year and 57 percent are making or planning changes to brand affiliation or management strategies.
“With hopes high for a stronger fourth quarter, hotel asset managers continue to maintain an optimistic outlook,” said Chad Sorensen, HAMA president. “More than 70 percent of our members expect RevPAR to increase 1 to 3 percent and two-thirds are pursuing acquisitions. With 80 percent planning renovations in the coming year, we see an engaged community focused on performance.”
Conducted among 81 HAMA members, about one-third of the association, the survey reports expectations for revenue growth, property investments and acquisitions.
However, the top three most concerning issues were demand, ADR growth and tariffs, HAMA said.
RevPAR growth forecast
Looking into 2026, 72.8 percent expect 1 to 3 percent growth, 18.5 percent expect 4 to 6 percent, 7.4 percent anticipate flat results and 1.2 percent project a decline. Full-year RevPAR projections versus budget are more mixed: 49 percent expect 1 to 3 percent growth, 17 percent expect flat results, 12 percent expect 4 to 6 percent growth, 2 percent expect 7 percent or more and 19 percent expect declines.
Hotel asset managers note several market pressures, the report said. Other concerns include ADR growth at 51.9 percent, tariffs at 34.6 percent, wage increases at 33.3 percent and potential Federal Reserve rate changes at 32.1 percent. Management company performance at 25.9 percent, immigration and labor trends, union activity and insurance costs were also mentioned.
“The industry is at its highest level of concern around maintaining or increasing rates,” Sorensen said. “There’s pressure to build on the P&L going into 2026.”
Performance projections
Confidence in the broader economy has increased since spring, the survey found. Only 37 percent of respondents expect a U.S. recession in 2025, down from 49 percent earlier in the year.
When asked about properties exceeding gross operating profit forecasts, 59 percent of managers expect 0 to 25 percent of their hotels to surpass targets, 25 percent expect 26 to 50 percent, 10 percent expect 51 to 75 percent and 6 percent expect 76 to 100 percent. Additionally, 20 percent reported returning hotels to lenders or entering forced sales since the spring survey.
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Hersha Hotels & Resorts sold The Boxer Boston to Eurostars Hotels.
The company acquired the property in 2012 for $12.6 million.
The property now sold for $23.6 million.
HERSHA HOTELS & RESORTS sold The Boxer Boston, an 80-room hotel in Boston’s West End, to Eurostars Hotels, part of Spain’s Grupo Hotusa. The company, which reportedly acquired the property in 2012 for $12.6 million, received $23.6 million for it.
The seven-story hotel, built in 1904, is near TD Garden, the Charles River Esplanade, One Congress, North Station and Massachusetts General Hospital, said JLL Hotels & Hospitality, which brokered the sale. It also has a fitness center.
Hersha Hotels & Resorts is part of the Hersha Group, founded in 1984 by Hasu Shah. Jay Shah serves as senior advisor and his brother Neil Shah is president and CEO.
JLL Managing Director Alan Suzuki, Senior Director Matthew Enright and Associate Emily Zhang represented the seller.
"The Boxer’s prime location at the crossroads of Boston's West End, North End and Downtown districts, combined with its strong cash flow and its unencumbered status regarding brand and management, made this an exceptionally attractive investment," said Suzuki. "Boston continues to demonstrate resilient lodging fundamentals driven by its diverse demand generators, including world-class educational institutions, medical facilities, corporate presence and convention and leisure attractions."
The property will become the Spanish hotel chain Eurostars’ fifth U.S. hotel, supporting the group’s North American expansion, the statement said.
Amancio López Seijas, president of Grupo Hotusa and Eurostars Hotels Co., said the addition of Eurostars’ The Boxer strengthens the company’s presence in key locations and promotes urban tourism.
Peachtree recognized by Inc. and the Atlanta Business Chronicle.
Named to the 2025 Inc. 5000 list for the third year.
Chronicle’s Pacesetter Awards recognize metro Atlanta’s fastest-growing companies.
PEACHTREE GROUP ENTERED the 2025 Inc. 5000 list for the third consecutive year. The company also won the Atlanta Business Chronicle Pacesetter Awards as one of the city’s fastest-growing private companies.
The Inc. 5000 list provides a data-driven look at independent businesses with sustained success nationwide, while the Business Chronicle’s Pacesetter Awards recognize metro Atlanta’s fastest-growing privately held companies, Peachtree said in a statement.
“We are in the business of identifying and capitalizing on mispriced risk, and in today’s environment of disruption and dislocation, that has created strong tailwinds for our growth,” said Greg Friedman, managing principal and CEO. “These recognitions validate our ability to execute in complex markets, and we see significant opportunity ahead as we continue to scale our platform.”
The Atlanta-based investment firm, led by Friedman; Jatin Desai, managing principal and CFO and Mitul Patel, principal, oversees a diversified portfolio of more than $8 billion.
A PETITION FOR a referendum on Los Angeles’s proposed “Olympic Wage” ordinance, requiring a $30 minimum wage for hospitality workers by the 2028 Olympic Games, lacked sufficient signatures, according to the Los Angeles County Registrar. The ordinance will take effect, raising hotel worker wages from the current $22.50 to $25 next year, $27.50 in 2027 and $30 in 2028.
Mandatory health care benefits payments will also begin in 2026.
The L.A. Alliance for Tourism, Jobs and Progress sought a referendum to repeal the ordinance, approved by the city council four months ago. The petition needed about 93,000 signatures but fell short by about 9,000, according to Interim City Clerk Petty Santos.
The council approved the minimum wage increase for tourism workers in May 2023, despite opposition from business leaders citing a decline in international travel. The ordinance requires hotels with more than 60 rooms and businesses at Los Angeles International Airport to pay workers $30 an hour by 2028. It passed on a 12 to 3 vote, with Councilmembers John Lee, Traci Park and Monica Rodriguez opposed.
The L.A. Alliance submitted more than 140,000 signatures in June opposing the tourism wage ordinance, triggering a June 2026 repeal vote supported by airlines, hotels and concession businesses.
AAHOA called the ruling a setback for Los Angeles hotel owners, who will bear the costs of the mandate.
"This ruling is a major setback for Los Angeles' small business hotel owners, who will shoulder the burden of this mandate," said Kamalesh “KP” Patel, AAHOA chairman. "Instead of working with industry leaders, the city moved forward with a policy that ignores economic realities and jeopardizes the jobs and businesses that keep this city's hospitality sector operating and supporting economic growth. Family-owned hotels now face choices—cutting staff, halting hiring, or raising rates—just as Los Angeles prepares to host millions of visitors for the World Cup and 2028 Olympics. You can't build a city by breaking the backs of the small businesses that make it run."
Laura Lee Blake, AAHOA president and CEO, said members are proud to create jobs in their communities, but the ordinance imposes costs that will affect the entire city.
“Even with a delayed rollout, the mandate represents a 70 percent wage increase above California's 2025 minimum wage,” she said. “This approach could remove more than $114 million each year from hotels, funds that could instead be invested in keeping workers employed and ensuring Los Angeles remains a competitive destination. The mandate increases the risk of closures, layoffs and a weaker Los Angeles."
A recent report from the American Hotel & Lodging Association found Los Angeles is still dealing with the effects of the pandemic and recent wildfires. International visitation remains below 2019 levels, more than in any other major U.S. city.
India-based TBO will acquire U.S. wholesaler Classic Vacations for up to $125 million.
The deal combines TBO’s distribution platform with Classic’s advisor network.
Classic will remain independent while integrating TBO’s global inventory and digital tools.
TRAVEL BOUTIQUE ONLINE, an Indian travel distribution platform, will acquire U.S. travel wholesaler Classic Vacations LLC from Phoenix-based The Najafi Cos., entering the North American market. The deal is valued at up to $125 million.
Gurugram-based TBO is led by co-founders and joint MDs Gaurav Bhatnagar and Ankush Nijhawan.
“We’re thrilled to bring Classic Vacations into the TBO family – the company’s longstanding delivery of services has earned the trust of more than 10,000 travel advisors in the U.S. and their end customers, making Classic Vacations a seamless fit for our vision in the travel and tourism industry,” said Bhatnagar. “Classic Vacations is led by a strong team and will continue as an independent brand while leveraging TBO’s technology and distribution capabilities to grow its business.”
Classic Vacations reported revenues of $111 million and an operating EBITDA of $11.2 million for the financial year ending Dec. 31, 2024, the companies said in a joint statement. The company has a network of more than 10,000 travel advisors and suppliers.
The acquisition combines TBO’s distribution platform with Classic’s advisor network to strengthen their position in the outbound market, the statement said. Classic will continue as an independent brand while integrating TBO’s global inventory and digital tools.
Nijhawan said the acquisition furthers TBO’s investment in organic and inorganic growth.
“As we begin integrating Classic Vacations with TBO, we will remain open to similar strategic alliances going forward,” he said.
Classic Vacations was acquired from Expedia Group by The Najafi Cos. in 2021.
“This acquisition and partnership are a natural next step for our portfolio company Classic Vacations, and we’re happy to have worked successfully with them for the last four years, maximising the company’s strengths and expertise in luxury travel,” said Jahm Najafi, founder and CEO, The Najafi Companies.
Moelis & Co. LLC was the financial adviser and Ballard Spahr LLP the legal adviser to Classic Vacations. Cooley LLP served as legal adviser and PwC as financial and tax adviser to TBO.