PwC: Economy, politics to influence U.S. hotel performance in 2024
The research firm projects a 63 percent annual occupancy rate for US hotels this year
By Vishnu Rageev RNov 20, 2023
ECONOMIC HEADWINDS AND geopolitical concerns are expected to affect U.S. hotel performance in 2024, according to PwC. The issues include continuing high interest rates and the Israel-Palestine conflict.
Occupancy levels have consistently decreased over the past seven months compared to the same period in 2022. This downward trend is anticipated to persist for the remainder of this year and extend into at least the first quarter of 2024. However, PwC forecasts a 63 percent annual occupancy rate for US hotels this year.
Hotels in the U.S. experienced a weakening in leisure demand during the latter part of this year, as global vacation destinations reopened, and leisure travelers regained confidence in traveling abroad, PwC said in its latest report titled U.S. Hospitality Directions: November 2023. Moreover, gains in individual and group business travel haven't completely counteracted this softening.
Room rate growth played a vital role in the initial recovery for US hotels but declined notably in the second quarter, dropping below inflationary growth levels in the third quarter, PwC said. However, ADR growth is anticipated to resume an upward trend, surpassing a diminishing inflation level from the fourth quarter onward into the next year.
According to the report, the Federal Reserve's ongoing policy rate hikes, sustained public market declines since early August, and the recent Israel conflict are now exerting a downstream influence on hotel demand.
Despite ongoing declines in occupancies for the rest of the year, the report anticipates a 4.5 percent increase in average daily room rates, leading to a 5.2 percent rise in RevPAR—approximately 114 percent of pre-pandemic levels in nominal dollars.
“A continued tightening of financial conditions has begun to have an impact on the overall economy,” said Warren Marr, PwC’s managing director for U.S. hospitality and leisure. “Since our last issue of Hospitality Directions U.S. in May, we've seen two consecutive quarters of decline in hotel occupancies and expect to see two more in the fourth quarter this year and the first quarter of 2024 before a gradual rebound. We expect to see RevPAR growth to once again exceed PCE inflation beginning in the second quarter next year.”
Key trends and highlights from the report
Since PwC’s May 2023 outlook, the Fed's monetary policy has persistently raised concerns, and significant improvement is not anticipated until next year. This has led to limited availability of debt aligned with hotel asset asking prices. Consequently, transaction activity has been subdued and is expected to stay muted until the Fed makes substantial adjustments to monetary policy or the bid-ask spread on hotel assets narrows.
Entering 2024, the midweek travel outlook is uncertain, with some companies signalling adjustments to their business travel policies to tighten corporate budgets and meet sustainability goals. Outbound international leisure travel continues to surpass inbound, driven by the robust dollar and pent-up demand for international travel post-pandemic. Anticipating relatively flat occupancy levels in 2024, performance gains are projected to derive predominantly from ADR, leading to an expected year-over-year RevPAR increase of 2.7 percent—approximately 117 percent of pre-pandemic levels.
Significant risks to this outlook include the speed and scale of shifts in the macroeconomic landscape, along with escalating geopolitical tensions.
Revised outlook for 2024
Demand growth continues to be sluggish during the first half of 2024, before gradually accelerating in the second half resulting in occupancy of 63.2 percent.
Growth in ADR gradually decelerates throughout the year, as the FED continues to apply pressure on inflation up 2.4 percent.
RevPAR continues to moderately increase, up 2.7 percent.
According to CBRE's recent study, U.S. hotel demand saw a 0.5 percent year-over-year decrease in the third quarter, accompanied by a corresponding 0.5 percent rise in supply, leading to a 1 percent occupancy decline. ADR registered a 0.6 percent increase, marking the slowest improvement in 10 quarters, while RevPAR experienced a 0.3 percent decline, balancing a slight occupancy decrease with an ADR uptick.
The Trump administration says it is reviewing more than 55 million visa holders.
Reviews cover a wide range of visas for law enforcement and overstay violations.
The administration also suspended worker visas for foreign commercial truck drivers.
THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION is reviewing more than 55 million people who hold valid U.S. visas for potential violations. It is expanding a policy of “continuous vetting” that could result in revocation and deportation.
The State Department confirmed all visa holders are subject to ongoing review, which includes checking for overstays, criminal activity, threats to public safety or ties to terrorism. Should violations be found, visas may be revoked, and holders in the U.S. could face deportation, according to the Associated Press.
Officials said the reviews will include monitoring of visa holders’ social media accounts, law enforcement records and immigration files. New rules also require applicants to disable privacy settings on phones and apps during interviews. The department noted visa revocations since President Trump’s return to office have more than doubled compared to the previous year, including nearly four times as many student visas.
The administration also announced an immediate halt on issuing worker visas for foreign commercial truck drivers, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio citing road safety and competition concerns for U.S. truckers.
“The increasing number of foreign drivers operating large tractor-trailer trucks on U.S. roads is endangering American lives and undercutting the livelihoods of American truckers,” Rubio posted on X.
The Transportation Department linked the move to recent enforcement of English-language proficiency requirements for truckers, aimed at improving safety. The State Department later said it was pausing visa processing while it reviewed screening protocols.
Critics, including Edward Alden of the Council on Foreign Relations, warned the actions could have significant economic consequences.
“The goal here is not to target specific classes of workers, but to send the message to American employers that they are at risk if they are employing foreign workers,” Alden wrote, according to AP.
Data from the Department of Homeland Security shows there are 12.8 million green card holders and 3.6 million temporary visa holders in the United States. The 55 million figure under review includes many outside the U.S. with valid multiple-entry tourist visas.
Earlier this week, the State Department reported revoking more than 6,000 student visas for violations since Trump returned to office, including around 200 to 300 for terrorism-related issues.
The vast majority of foreign visitors require visas to enter the U.S., with exceptions granted to citizens of 40 countries under the Visa Waiver Program, primarily in Europe and Asia. Citizens of China, India, Russia and most of Africa remain subject to visa requirements.
A $250 Visa Integrity Fee in President Donald Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill drew criticism from groups that rely on seasonal workers from Latin America and Asia on J-1 and other visas.
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Spark acquired the 120-key Home2 Suites by Hilton Wayne in Wayne, New Jersey.
Hunter Hotel Advisors facilitated the transaction with DC Hospitality Group affiliates.
The 2020-built hotel is near William Paterson University and less than 20 miles from Manhattan.
SPARK GHC RECENTLY acquired the 120-key Home2 Suites by Hilton Wayne in Wayne, New Jersey, from affiliates of DC Hospitality Group. Hunter Hotel Advisors facilitated the deal for an undisclosed amount.
The 2020-built hotel is less than 20 miles from Manhattan in a commercial corridor with major employers including Driscoll Foods, FedEx Group, Advanced Biotech, St. Joseph’s Wayne Hospital, and the Passaic County Administration, Hunter said in a statement. William Paterson University, Willowbrook Mall, and MetLife Stadium are also nearby.
It features an on-site fitness center, business center and indoor pool.
“The Home2 Suites by Hilton Wayne represents the type of asset we target,” said Patel. “Its proximity to major corporate demand generators, higher education institutions, and retail and entertainment venues supports strong performance.”
Hunter’s senior vice presidents, David Perrin and Spencer Davidson, brokered the transaction.
Patel said this is their second transaction with Hunter and praised the process and partnership.
“We look forward to building on the hotel’s recent performance and continuing to deliver guest experiences in the Greater New York City community,” he said.
Northstar Hotels Management recently acquired a 78-key Residence Inn and an 81-key Courtyard near the Jacksonville, Florida, airport.
Global pipeline hit a record 15,871 projects with 2.4 million rooms in Q2.
The U.S. leads with 6,280 projects; Dallas tops cities with 199.
Nearly 2,900 hotels are expected to open worldwide by the end of 2025.
THE GLOBAL HOTEL pipeline reached 15,871 projects, up 3 percent year-over-year, and 2,436,225 rooms, up 2 percent, according to Lodging Econometrics. Most were upper midscale and upscale, LE reported.
The U.S. leads with 6,280 projects and 737,036 rooms, 40 percent of the global total. Dallas leads cities with 199 projects and 24,497 rooms, the highest on record.
LE’s Q2 2025 Hotel Construction Pipeline Trend Report showed 6,257 projects with 1,086,245 rooms under construction worldwide, unchanged in project count and down 3 percent in rooms from last year. Projects scheduled to start in the next 12 months totaled 3,870 with 551,188 rooms, down 3 percent in projects but up 1 percent in rooms. Early planning reached 5,744 projects and 798,792 rooms, up 10 percent in projects and 9 percent in rooms year-over-year.
Upper midscale and upscale hotels accounted for 52 percent of the global pipeline, LE said. Upper midscale stood at 4,463 projects and 567,396 rooms, while upscale reached 3,852 projects and 655,674 rooms. Upper upscale totaled 1,807 projects and 385,396 rooms, and luxury totaled 1,267 projects and 245,665 rooms, up 11 percent year-over-year.
In the first half of 2025, 970 hotels with 138,168 rooms opened worldwide. Another 1,884 hotels with 280,079 rooms are scheduled to open before year-end, for a 2025 total of 2,854 hotels and 418,247 rooms. LE projects 2,531 hotels with 382,942 rooms to open in 2026 and 2,554 hotels with 382,282 rooms to open globally in 2027, the first time a forecast has been issued for that year.
HAMA is accepting submissions for its 20th annual student case competition.
The cases reflect a scenario HAMA members faced as owner representatives.
Teams must submit a financial analysis, solution and executive summary.
THE HOSPITALITY ASSET Managers Association is accepting submissions for the 20th Annual HAMA Student Case Competition, in which more than 60 students analyze a management company change scenario and provide recommendations. HAMA, HotStats and Lodging Analytics Research & Consulting are providing the case, based on a scenario HAMA members faced as owner representatives.
Student teams must prepare a financial analysis, a recommended solution and an executive summary for board review, HAMA said in a statement.
“Each year, the education committee looks forward to the solutions that the next generation of hotel asset managers bring, applying their own experiences to issues in ways that reveal new directions,” said Adam Tegge, HAMA Education Committee chair. “This competition demonstrates that the future of hotel asset management is in good hands.”
The two winning teams will each receive a $5,000 prize and an invitation to the spring 2026 HAMA conference in Washington, D.C. HAMA will cover travel and lodging.
Twenty industry executives on the HAMA education committee will evaluate submissions based on presentation quality, the statement said. HAMA mentors volunteer from September through November to assist teams seeking feedback and additional information. Schools will select finalists by Jan. 15, with graduate and undergraduate teams reviewed separately.
The competition has addressed topics in operating and owning hospitality assets and HAMA consulted university professors to update the format for situations students may encounter after graduation, the statement said.
This year’s participants include University of Denver, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Boston University, Florida International University, Michigan State University, Columbia University, Morgan State University, Howard University, New York University and Penn State University.
Stonebridge Cos. added the Statler Dallas, Curio Collection by Hilton, to its managed portfolio.
The hotel, opened in 1956 and relaunched in 2017, is owned by Centurion American Development Group.
The property is near Main Street Garden Park, the Arts District and the Dallas World Aquarium.
STONEBRIDGE COS. HAS contracted to manage the Statler Dallas, Curio Collection by Hilton in Dallas to its managed portfolio. The hotel, opened in 1956 and relaunched in 2017, is owned by Centurion American Development Group, led by Mehrdad Moayedi.
It has an outdoor pool and more than 26,000 square feet of meeting space, Stonebridge said in a statement. The downtown Dallas property is near Main Street Garden Park, the Arts District, the Kay Bailey Hutchison Convention Center, Deep Ellum, Klyde Warren Park, and the Dallas World Aquarium.
“The Statler is an extraordinary asset with a storied history in Dallas, and we are thrilled to welcome it to our managed portfolio,” said Rob Smith, Stonebridge’s president and CEO. “Its blend of modern hospitality with timeless character makes it a natural fit within our lifestyle collection. We look forward to honoring the property’s legacy while enhancing performance and delivering an elevated guest experience.”
Stonebridge, based in Denver, is a privately held hotel management company founded by Chairman Navin Dimond and led by Smith. The company recently added the 244-room Marriott Saddle Brook in Saddle Brook, New Jersey, to its full-service portfolio.