PwC: Economy, politics to influence U.S. hotel performance in 2024
The research firm projects a 63 percent annual occupancy rate for US hotels this year
By Vishnu Rageev RNov 20, 2023
ECONOMIC HEADWINDS AND geopolitical concerns are expected to affect U.S. hotel performance in 2024, according to PwC. The issues include continuing high interest rates and the Israel-Palestine conflict.
Occupancy levels have consistently decreased over the past seven months compared to the same period in 2022. This downward trend is anticipated to persist for the remainder of this year and extend into at least the first quarter of 2024. However, PwC forecasts a 63 percent annual occupancy rate for US hotels this year.
Hotels in the U.S. experienced a weakening in leisure demand during the latter part of this year, as global vacation destinations reopened, and leisure travelers regained confidence in traveling abroad, PwC said in its latest report titled U.S. Hospitality Directions: November 2023. Moreover, gains in individual and group business travel haven't completely counteracted this softening.
Room rate growth played a vital role in the initial recovery for US hotels but declined notably in the second quarter, dropping below inflationary growth levels in the third quarter, PwC said. However, ADR growth is anticipated to resume an upward trend, surpassing a diminishing inflation level from the fourth quarter onward into the next year.
According to the report, the Federal Reserve's ongoing policy rate hikes, sustained public market declines since early August, and the recent Israel conflict are now exerting a downstream influence on hotel demand.
Despite ongoing declines in occupancies for the rest of the year, the report anticipates a 4.5 percent increase in average daily room rates, leading to a 5.2 percent rise in RevPAR—approximately 114 percent of pre-pandemic levels in nominal dollars.
“A continued tightening of financial conditions has begun to have an impact on the overall economy,” said Warren Marr, PwC’s managing director for U.S. hospitality and leisure. “Since our last issue of Hospitality Directions U.S. in May, we've seen two consecutive quarters of decline in hotel occupancies and expect to see two more in the fourth quarter this year and the first quarter of 2024 before a gradual rebound. We expect to see RevPAR growth to once again exceed PCE inflation beginning in the second quarter next year.”
Key trends and highlights from the report
Since PwC’s May 2023 outlook, the Fed's monetary policy has persistently raised concerns, and significant improvement is not anticipated until next year. This has led to limited availability of debt aligned with hotel asset asking prices. Consequently, transaction activity has been subdued and is expected to stay muted until the Fed makes substantial adjustments to monetary policy or the bid-ask spread on hotel assets narrows.
Entering 2024, the midweek travel outlook is uncertain, with some companies signalling adjustments to their business travel policies to tighten corporate budgets and meet sustainability goals. Outbound international leisure travel continues to surpass inbound, driven by the robust dollar and pent-up demand for international travel post-pandemic. Anticipating relatively flat occupancy levels in 2024, performance gains are projected to derive predominantly from ADR, leading to an expected year-over-year RevPAR increase of 2.7 percent—approximately 117 percent of pre-pandemic levels.
Significant risks to this outlook include the speed and scale of shifts in the macroeconomic landscape, along with escalating geopolitical tensions.
Revised outlook for 2024
Demand growth continues to be sluggish during the first half of 2024, before gradually accelerating in the second half resulting in occupancy of 63.2 percent.
Growth in ADR gradually decelerates throughout the year, as the FED continues to apply pressure on inflation up 2.4 percent.
RevPAR continues to moderately increase, up 2.7 percent.
According to CBRE's recent study, U.S. hotel demand saw a 0.5 percent year-over-year decrease in the third quarter, accompanied by a corresponding 0.5 percent rise in supply, leading to a 1 percent occupancy decline. ADR registered a 0.6 percent increase, marking the slowest improvement in 10 quarters, while RevPAR experienced a 0.3 percent decline, balancing a slight occupancy decrease with an ADR uptick.
Marriott launches Outdoor Collection and Bonvoy Outdoors platform.
First two brands are Postcard Cabins and Trailborn Hotels.
Platform features 450+ hotels, 50,000 homes and activities.
MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL RECENTLY launched the brand “Outdoor Collection by Marriott Bonvoy” and introduced “Marriott Bonvoy Outdoors,” a digital platform that lets travelers plan trips by destination or activity. The first two brands in the Outdoor Collection are Postcard Cabins and Trailborn Hotels.
Outdoor Collection offers stays such as cabins near national parks and hotels on cliffs, providing access to nature along with basic guest needs, including beds, running water and restrooms, Marriott said in a statement.
The Marriott Bonvoy Outdoors platform includes 450 hotels, 50,000 homes and villas, and tours and activities, the statement said. Postcard Cabins has 1,200 cabins across 29 U.S. locations within two hours of major cities and Trailborn Hotels offers properties in the Blue Ridge Mountains, the Grand Canyon, and Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina.
“We built Marriott Bonvoy Outdoors to help people, whether that’s cresting a mountain trail, catching the perfect wave, or simply finding quiet under the stars,” said Peggy Roe, Marriott's executive vice president and chief customer officer. “Travel is at its best when it speaks to who we are and what we love. It’s about reconnecting with yourself and the people you love in the places that inspire you most. With the new Outdoor Collection by Marriott Bonvoy, our curated Marriott Bonvoy Moments and activations like the Drop Pin Challenge with Dylan Efron, we’re not just offering places to stay, we’re opening doors to experiences that inspire, connect and stay with you forever.”
Marriott Bonvoy partnered with Dylan Efron on the Drop Pin Challenge, a treasure hunt across 20 U.S. and Canadian locations with 10 million points at stake. Travelers can visit marriottbonvoyoutdoors.com for rules and locations and the first 50 eligible participants to scan each pin earn 10,000 points. The platform is also partnering with Outside Interactive to offer Marriott Bonvoy Moments that connect guests with nature and activities.
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Peachtree adds six hotels to third-party platform.
Five are owned by La Posada Group, one by Decatur Properties.
Third-party portfolio totals 42 hotels.
PEACHTREE GROUP’S HOSPITALITY management division added six hotels to its third-party management platform. Five are owned by La Posada Group LLC and one by Decatur Properties Holdings.
La Posada’s hotels include Fairfield Inn Evansville East in Evansville, Indiana; Fairfield Inn Las Cruces and TownePlace Suites Las Cruces in Las Cruces, New Mexico; and SpringHill Suites Lawrence Downtown and TownePlace Suites Kansas City Overland Park in Kansas, Peachtree said in a statement.
It also assumed management of Decatur Properties’ Hampton Inn in Monahans, Texas.
“Our third-party management business is experiencing growth and these six hotels demonstrate the trust owners are placing in our team,” said Vickie Callahan, president of Peachtree’s hospitality management division. “We have experience managing hotels and managing operations for partners who have entrusted us with their assets. We are committed to protecting asset value, driving results for partners and delivering a strong guest experience.”
The division manages hotels across brands and markets nationwide, the statement said. It operates 115 hotels across 29 brands with 14,212 rooms in 27 states and Washington, D.C. The additions bring its total third-party operations to 42 hotels.
Callahan said the team uses scale, operating systems and brand relationships to optimize revenue, control costs and improve guest satisfaction.
Atlanta-based Peachtree is led by Greg Friedman, managing principal and CEO; Jatin Desai, managing principal and CFO and Mitul Patel, principal.
AHLA Foundation distributed $710,000 in scholarships to 246 students.
Nearly 90 percent of recipients come from underrepresented communities.
The foundation funds students pursuing education and careers in the lodging sector.
AHLA FOUNDATION DISTRIBUTED $710,000 in academic scholarships to 246 students at 64 schools nationwide for the 2025–2026 academic year. Nearly 90 percent of recipients are from underrepresented communities, reflecting the foundation’s focus on expanding access to hospitality careers.
The foundation awards academic scholarships annually to students in hospitality management and related programs, it said in a statement.
“Our scholarship program is helping ensure the next generation of talent has the resources to pursue careers in the hospitality industry,” said Kevin Carey, AHLA Foundation's president and CEO. “We’ve invested millions of dollars over the last several decades to recruit and support future leaders who will strengthen our industry.”
It provides funding to help students pursue education and careers in the lodging sector, the statement said. Award decisions are based on applicants’ academic performance, extracurricular involvement, recommendations and financial need.
In September, AHLA Foundation, the International Council on Hotel, Restaurant and Institutional Education and the Accreditation Commission for Programs in Hospitality Administration announced plans to expand education opportunities for hospitality students. The alliance aim to provide data, faculty development and student engagement opportunities.
The U.S. government shut down at midnight after Congress failed to agree on funding.
About 750,000 federal employees will be furloughed daily, costing $400 million.
Key immigration and labor programs are halted.
THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT shut down at midnight after Republicans and Democrats failed to agree on funding. Disputes over healthcare subsidies and spending priorities left both sides unwilling to accept responsibility.
The shutdown could cost America’s travel economy $1 billion a week, the U.S. Travel Association said previously. It will disrupt federal agencies, including the Transportation Security Administration and hurt the travel economy, USTA CEO Geoff Freeman wrote in a Sept. 25 letter to Congress.
“A shutdown is a wholly preventable blow to America’s travel economy—costing $1 billion each week—and affecting millions of travelers and businesses while straining an already overextended federal travel workforce,” Freeman said. “While Congress recently provided a $12.5 billion down payment to modernize our nation’s air travel system and improve safety and efficiency, this modernization will stop in the event of a shutdown.”
USTA said that halting air traffic controller hiring and training would worsen a nationwide shortage of more than 2,800 controllers and further strain the air travel system.
About 750,000 federal workers are expected to be furloughed each day at a cost of about $400 million, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Essential services to protect life and property remain operational, CNN reported. The Department of Education said most of its staff will be furloughed, while the Department of Homeland Security will continue much of its work. Agencies released contingency plans before the deadline.
Immigration services are directly affected. Most U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services operations continue because they are fee funded, but programs relying on appropriations—such as E-Verify, the Conrad 30 J-1 physician program and the special immigrant religious worker program—are suspended. Houston law firm Reddy Neumann Brown said employers must manually verify I-9 documents if E-Verify goes offline, though USCIS has historically extended compliance deadlines.
The Department of Labor will halt its Office of Foreign Labor Certification, freezing labor condition applications for H-1B visas, PERM applications and prevailing wage determinations, India’s Business Standard reported. Its FLAG system and related websites will also go offline. Immigration lawyers warn of ripple effects, since USCIS depends on DOL data. The Board of Alien Labor Certification Appeals and administrative law dockets will also pause.
Visa and passport services at U.S. consulates generally continue because they are fee funded. If revenue falls short at a post, services may be limited to emergencies and diplomatic needs.
Reuters reported that the disruption could delay the September jobs report, slow air travel, suspend scientific research, withhold pay from active-duty U.S. troops and disrupt other government operations. The funding standoff involves $1.7 trillion in discretionary agency spending—about one-quarter of the $7 trillion federal budget, according to Reuters. Most of the rest goes to health programs, retirement benefits and interest on the $37.5 trillion national debt.
According to The New York Times, unlike previous shutdowns, Trump is threatening long-term changes to the government if Democrats do not concede to demands, including firing workers and permanently cutting programs they support.
The U.S. led global travel and tourism in 2024 with $2.6 trillion in GDP, WTTC reported.
India retained ninth place with $249.3 billion in GDP.
The sector supported 357 million jobs in 2024, rising to 371 million in 2025.
THE U.S. LED global travel and tourism in 2024, contributing $2.6 trillion to GDP, mainly from domestic demand, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council. Europe accounted for five of the top 10 destinations, while India ranked 9th.
WTTC opened its 25th Global Summit in Rome with research showing investment reached $1 trillion in 2024, led by the U.S., China, Saudi Arabia and France.
“These results tell a story of strength and opportunity,” said Gloria Guevara, WTTC interim CEO. “The U.S. remains the world’s largest travel and tourism market, China is surging back, Europe is powering ahead, and destinations across the Middle East, Asia and Africa are delivering record growth. This year, we are forecasting that our sector will contribute a historic $2.1 trillion in 2025, surpassing the previous high of $1.9 trillion in 2019. As Italy hosts this year’s Global Summit, its role as a G7 leader showcases the importance of tourism in driving economies, creating jobs and shaping our shared future.”
The U.S. kept its top position, but international visitor spending is expected to fall by $12.5 billion in 2025, limiting growth to 0.7 percent. China, the second-largest market, contributed $1.64 trillion in 2024 and is forecast to grow 22.7 percent this year. Japan, the fifth-largest market, is expected to rise from $310.5 billion to nearly $325 billion.
Italy, which hosted the summit and is a G7 member, contributed $248.3 billion in 2024, driven by international visitors and the meetings and events sector. Germany, the third-largest market, contributed $525 billion. The UK generated $367 billion despite a fall in international visitor spending, while France and Spain added $289 billion and $270 billion. Europe’s growth was supported by both cultural and modern sectors.
India contributed $249.3 billion in 2024. In June, WTTC reported international visitors spent $36.09 billion in India in last year, up 9 percent from 2019.
Jobs on the rise
Travel and tourism supported 357 million jobs in 2024 and is expected to reach 371 million in 2025, increasing its share of global employment, the WTTC report found. By 2035, the sector is projected to support one in eight jobs worldwide, adding 91 million positions—most in Asia-Pacific—and accounting for one in three new jobs globally.
Uncertainties over trade tariffs and geopolitical tensions could limit sector growth in 2025, the report said. Travel and tourism’s GDP contribution is forecast to rise 6.7 percent, returning toward pre-pandemic averages but still outpacing the 2.5 percent growth projected for the global economy.
The sector is expected to contribute $11.7 trillion, or 10.3 percent of global GDP and add 14.4 million jobs, bringing total employment to 371 million, or 10.9 percent of global jobs. International visitor spending is projected to fully recover, rising 8.6 percent above 2019 levels to nearly $2.1 trillion, while domestic visitor spending is expected to rise 13.6 percent to $5.6 trillion. Annual growth for 2025 is forecast at 10 percent for international and 5.1 percent for domestic spending.
In May, WTTC projected the U.S. stood to lose $12.5 billion in international travel spending this year, falling to under $169 billion from $181 billion in 2024. The council said U.S. needs to do more to welcome international visitors rather than “putting up the ‘closed’ sign.”