- India’s plan to import $500B in U.S. faces doubts, Reuters reports.
- Bilateral trade was $132B in 2024–25, with a $41B surplus for India.
- Experts doubt $100B yearly imports are feasible without policy support.
INDIA’S PLAN TO buy $500 billion of U.S. goods over five years is likely to distort procurement and reshape New Delhi’s trade balance, according to Reuters. Trade experts and economists questioned whether $100 billion a year in imports is feasible without a policy push steering companies toward U.S. suppliers.
U.S. President Donald Trump recently cut tariffs on Indian goods to 18 percent from 50 percent, prompting relief in India, while asking New Delhi to more than double its annual imports of U.S. goods. Meanwhile, bilateral trade totaled $132 billion in fiscal 2024–25, with a roughly $41 billion surplus for India, according to Reuters.
Madhavi Arora, an economist at Emkay Global, called the target more “aspirational than realistic.”
“The math doesn’t add up,” she said.
A joint statement said India intends to buy $500 billion of U.S. goods, stopping short of a binding commitment. India aims to increase procurement of oil, gas, coking coal and aircraft from the U.S. While India has cited Boeing orders as part of the plan, some analysts say firms could still favor Airbus if commercial terms are better.
Arora cautioned that such targets could imply a government nudge to private airline and corporate sourcing decisions, which may be inefficient.
The U.S. is India’s top export destination, accounting for nearly a fifth of its shipments in 2024–25. If exports stay near pre-tariff levels and imports rise, India’s largest bilateral surplus could shrink and its overall trade deficit could widen, according to Reuters. India had a goods trade deficit of $283.5 billion in 2024–25.
“If it is $100 billion every year, it will completely upset India’s trade balance,” said independent trade expert Biswajit Dhar.
Dhar also said that the deal mainly preserves access to India’s market rather than boosting exports.
Meanwhile, Indian markets steadied after an initial relief rally, but economists said investors remain wary of the $500 billion target.
“The markets seem to be treating the $500 billion purchase intention with a degree of skepticism,” said Dhiraj Nim, an economist at ANZ, according to Reuters.
