Summary:
- CRE sales totaled $38 billion in June 2025, down 15.7 percent from a year earlier, according to JP Morgan.
- Retail rose 37.4 percent, industrial 15.0 percent and office 11.5 percent; apartments fell 46.1 percent and hotels 45.6 percent.
- The average cap rate in June was 6.48 percent, down 25 basis points from May.
TOTAL COMMERCIAL REAL estate sales volume was $38 billion in June, down 15.7 percent from $45.1 billion in June 2024, according to JP Morgan. Entity-level deals totaled $887 million, compared to $10 billion a year earlier.
Volume rose 5.8 percent year over year excluding entity deals, JP Morgan reported, citing MSCI Real Assets data.
“Second-quarter activity is tracking well above our assumptions,” said analysts at JP Morgan. “We would characterize this as well ahead of our capital markets revenue assumptions in our commercial real estate services companies’ models, which average year-over-year growth of 8 percent for the second quarter of 2025.”
MSCI revised April and May volumes upward, JP Morgan said. April rose 38 percent to $36.1 billion, a 35.1 percent increase from a year earlier. May increased 30 percent to $35.9 billion, up 15.9 percent year over year. If June follows its typical 30 percent revision, total CRE sales for the second quarter would reach $120.2 billion, a 29.6 percent increase from the same period in 2024.
These figures exceed the 8 percent average growth analysts had projected for second-quarter capital markets revenue, the report said. While transaction volume does not directly translate to revenue, the strength points to upside for CRE services earnings.
Retail, industrial and office transaction volume rose year over year in June, while apartments and hotels declined. Retail increased 37.4 percent, industrial 15 percent and office 11.5 percent. Apartment volume fell 46.1 percent and hotel volume declined 45.6 percent.
“However, we do note that it is not apples-to-apples given capital markets revenue includes loan origination and these companies are global, whereas the data we point out here from MSCI Real Assets reflects only the United States,” the analysts said. “Looking beyond the United States CRE transaction volume data, from what we can tell, all data seem to be pointing to a stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings quarter and with some tailwinds from foreign exchange, we think second-quarter earnings season for the brokers should be solid.”
The average cap rate for all transactions in June 2025 was 6.48 percent, down 25 basis points from May. Among assets sold in June, average cap rates were 7.25 percent for office, down 32 basis points; 6.74 percent for industrial, up 9 basis points; 7.10 percent for retail, up 9 basis points; 5.41 percent for apartments, down 18 basis points and 8.62 percent for hotels, down 2 basis points.
A recent CoStar report found that the United States hotel transaction market in 2025 has shifted toward deals below $50 million.
