Summary:
- This year’s forecast is up 1.7 million from 2024 and 7 million from 2019.
- This Independence Day is expected to see 1.3 million more road travelers than in 2024.
- Top U.S. spots: Orlando, Seattle, New York, Anchorage, Fort Lauderdale, Honolulu, Denver, Miami, Boston and Atlanta.
APPROXIMATELY 72.2 MILLION Americans are expected to travel at least 50 miles from home during the Independence Day period from June 28 to July 6, according to AAA. The forecast is 1.7 million higher than last year and 7 million more than in 2019.
AAA's Independence Day forecast spans two weekends to reflect travel patterns more accurately.
“Summertime is one of the busiest travel seasons of the year, and July 4th is one of the most popular times to get away,” said Stacey Barber, AAA Travel’s vice president. “Following Memorial Day’s record forecast, AAA is seeing strong demand for road trips and air travel over Independence Day week. With the holiday falling on a Friday, travelers have the option of making it a long weekend or taking the entire week to make memories with family and friends.”
Car travel leads
About 61.6 million people will travel by car, a 2.2 percent increase over last year and the highest on record, the report said. This Independence Day period is expected to have 1.3 million more road travelers than in 2024.
Drivers are seeing some increases at the pump, but summer gas prices remain lower than in recent years, AAA said. Crude oil prices have kept costs down overall. The Israel-Iran conflict has pushed oil prices up slightly, with escalation and duration being key factors to watch. Weather also remains a variable.
The Atlantic hurricane season has begun and NOAA predicts a 60 percent chance of an above-normal season. Storms along the Gulf Coast can impact refineries and disrupt fuel deliveries, causing temporary gas price increases.
AAA expects 5.84 million travelers to fly, accounting for 8 percent of all Independence Day travel. This is a 1.4 percent increase over last year’s record of 5.76 million.
Travel by other modes is expected to grow 7.4 percent over last year, AAA said. About 4.78 million people are projected to travel by bus, train or cruise, just below the 2019 record of 4.79 million. Cruise travel is the main driver, especially during Alaska cruise season.
Top destinations
The top holiday destinations are based on AAA booking data for the Independence Day travel period. Cruises, beaches, and fireworks are key reasons travelers are visiting these cities. Alaska cruises are in peak season; Florida and Hawaii see strong demand for resorts and attractions; New York and Boston draw crowds for their fireworks shows. Internationally, Vancouver leads, followed by major European cities.
Top domestic destinations include Orlando, Seattle, New York, Anchorage, Fort Lauderdale, Honolulu, Denver, Miami, Boston and Atlanta. Key international destinations include Vancouver, Rome, Paris, London, Barcelona, Dublin, Amsterdam, Calgary, Athens and Lisbon.
In May, AAA said 45.1 million Americans would travel 50 miles or more over Memorial Day weekend, the highest on record.
